Preparation of Climate Change Scenarios for Climate Change Impact Assessment in Thailand

Funding source: S&T Postgraduate Education and Research Development Office(PERDO)
Principal investigator: Suppakorn Chinvanno
Researchers: Chalermrat Sangmanee , Jutatip Thanakitmetavut , Angkana Rawichutiwan, Panwad Wongthong
Timeframe: June 2009-July 2010
Period: 12 months
Status: Completed

This project focused on:

1. Synthesize climate change trends in Thailand from available climate scenarios.
2. Review existing state of knowledge on climate change impacts and risks in Thailand.
3. Summarize climate scenario data in an easy-to-use format which was made available for further studies on climate change impacts.
4. Establish a mechanism to disseminate data and information to support climate change studies and assessments on the impact of climate change in Thailand.

The high resolution climate scenario reviewed and the Thailand climate change trend data presented in the study are based on both statistical and dynamic downscaling techniques under different IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios. The summary also provides a snapshot situation of future climate conditions in Thailand as predicted by a variety of GCMs. By having multiple GCMs we ensure to capture the uncertainty of the climate models.
The results of these analyses suggest that the future climate in Thailand and surrounding countries will get warmer, have a longer summertime, a shorter and warmer wintertime and a rainy season with higher intensity of rainfall resulting in higher annual total precipitation. These changes are unlikely to be irreversible and would have impact on various systems and sectors.

High resolution climate scenarios from long-term climate projections can be used to assess impact of climate change in various sectors as well as to support long term planning. However, a climate scenario is only a plausible future and cannot be taken as long-term forecast. There is certain degree of uncertainty in this method. One way to cope with the uncertainty of long-term climate projections is the use of multiple scenarios, which are developed using various climate models and/or under different conditions.

Climate Change Data Distribution System has been developed and opens for technical users, who need future climate data for their research purposes, to extract data and download via the internet. The system can be accessed at the following URL: http:cc.start.or.th

Gallery

Geographic zones used in summarizing trend of climate change in Thailand

Sea level change

Change in cassava productivity under different climate conditions in the future (Pannangpetch, et al., 2009)

On-line distribution system of climate scenario data for climate change impact study