Doc_eng_7Final tech report - AS07 - Final version.doc

15 Bangkok, September 2006 Table of Contents Part 1: Project Information and Brief Summary Page 1 Project Information 7 1.1 Project title and AIACC reference number 7 1.2 Abstract 7 1.3 Investigators 8 1.4 Administering institution 9 1.5 Project funding and in-kind support 9 1.6 Countries of primary focus 10 1.7 Case study area 10 1.8 Sectors studied 10 1.9 Systems studied 10 1.10 Group studied 10 1.11 Sources of stress and change 10 2 Executive Summary 11 2.1 Research problems and objectives 11 2.2 Approach 11 2.2.1 Study on climate change and its impact on biophysical systems: modeling approach 12 2.2.2 Assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate impact: field survey and multiple criteria analysis approach 14 2.3 Scientific finding 14 2.3.1 Future climate change in Southeast Asia: lower Mekong River basin 14 2.3.2 Impact of climate change on hydrological regime: Mekong River's tributaries 17 2.3.3 Impact of climate change on rain-fed agriculture: rice cultivation 18 2.3.4 Risk and vulnerability of rain-fed farmer in Southeast Asia to climate change 20 2.3.5 Adaptation of rain-fed farmer in Southeast Asia to climate change 21 2.4 Capacity building outcomes and remaining needs 23 2.5 National Communications, science-policy linkages and stakeholder engagement 24 2.6 Policy implications and future directions 25 Part 2: Details Report Page 3 Introduction 27 4 Characterization of Current Climate and Scenarios of Future Climate Change 28 4.1 Activities Conducted: Development of high resolution regional climate scenario for the lower Mekong River region 28 4.2 Description of Scientific Methods and Data 28 4.3 Results: Climate change in lower Mekong River basin 31 4.3.1 Change in future temperature in lower Mekong River basin 32 4.3.2 Change in future precipitation in lower Mekong River basin 39 4.4 Conclusion 40 5 Impacts and vulnerability 42 5.1 Activity conducted 42 5.2 Study of impact of climate change on hydrological regime in lower Mekong River region 42 5.2.1 Description of Scientific Methods and Data 42 5.2.2 Results: Impact of climate change on discharge of Mekong River's tributaries in Lao PDR and Thailand 46 5.2.3 Conclusion 50 5.3 Study of impact of climate change on rain-fed rice productivity in lower Mekong River region 50 5.3.1 Description of Scientific Methods and Data 50 5.3.2 Results: Impact of climate change on rice productivity in lower Mekong River basin 51 5.3.3 Conclusion 53 5.4 Assessment on vulnerability and adaptation of rain-fed farmer in the lower Mekong River region to climate change 54 5.4.1 Description of Scientific Methods and Data 54 5.4.2 Result: Risk and vulnerability to climate impact of rain-fed farmer in lower Mekong River basin 64 5.4.3 Conclusion 71 6 Adaptation 74 6.1 Activities Conducted: Assessment adaptation to climate change of rain-fed farmer in lower Mekong River basin 75 6.2 Description of Scientific Methods and Data 75 6.3 Results: Adaptation strategy of rain-fed farmer in lower Mekong River basin to climate impacts 77 6.4 Conclusion 94 7 Capacity Building Outcomes and Remaining Needs 97 8 National Communications, Science-Policy Linkages and Stakeholder Engagement 99 9 Outputs of the project 100 10 Policy Implications and Future Directions 102 Reference 103 List of Figures and Tables 105 Appendix 1: Rainy Season Pattern at Selected Cities in lower Mekong River Basin under Influence of Climate Change 109 Appendix2: Result of Hydrological Regime Baseline Calculation and Model Calibration 113 Appendix 3: Simulation Result of Hydrological Regime of major Sub-basins of Mekong River in Lao PDR and Thailand under Different Climate Scenarios 127 Part 1: Project Information and brief summary Project Information Project title and AIACC reference number Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resource and Extreme Hydrological Events due to Climate Change AIACC Regional Study AS07 Abstract This research studied the impact of climate change on hydrological condition and rain-fed agriculture in Southeast Asia with focus on the lower Mekong River basin as well as assessed vulnerability and adaptation of rain-fed farmer to climate change impact.