Doc_eng_7.pdf
Table 4: Number of annual hot day at selected cities in the region under climate condition at
different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration
Table 5: Number of annual cool day in the selected cities in the region under climate condition at
different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration
Table 6: Annual precipitation in Mekong River basin in Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam – Wet
year scenario
Table 7: Annual precipitation in Mekong River basin in Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam – Dry
year scenario
Table 8: Impact of climate change on discharge of Mekong River’s tributaries in Lao PDR and
Thailand
Table 9: Simulated yield of rice productivity at the 3 study sites under different climate scenarios
Table 10: Study site on risk and vulnerability assessment in Thailand - details background of the
5 zones of study
Table 11: Indicators used for evaluating farmer’s risk to climate impact
Table 12: Scenario on change in rice productivity – proxy used for evaluating farmer’s risk and
vulnerability to impact of climate change
Table 13: Farm Level Measures for Managing Climate Risks
Table 14: Community Level Measures for Managing Climate Risks
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
107
Table 15: National Level Measures for Managing Climate Risks
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
108
Appendix 1:
Rainy Season Pattern at Selected Cities in lower Mekong River Basin under
Influence of Climate Change
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
109
Vientiane
Rainfall (milimeter)
80
C360
60
40
20
0
1
31
61
91
121
151
181
211
241
271
301
331
361
Day
Vientiane
Rainfall (milimeter)
80
C540
60
40
20
0
1
31
61
91
121
151
181
211
241
271
301
331
361
Day
Vientiane
Rainfall (milimeter)
80
C720
60
40
20
0
1
31
61
91
121
151
181
211
241
271
301
331
361
Day
Rainy season at Vientiane, Lao PDR
CO2 Scenario
360ppm
540ppm
720ppm
On-set date
146
136
136
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
End date
275
278
267
Rainy season day
130
143
132
Annual rainfall (mm)
1229
1511
1502
110
Rainfall (milimeter)
80
Pakse
C360
60
40
20
0
1
31
61
91
121
151
181
211
241
271
301
331
361
Day
Rainfall (milimeter)
80
Pakse
C540
60
40
20
0
1
31
61
91
121
151
181
211
241
271
301
331
361
Day
Rainfall (milimeter)
80
Pakse
C720
60
40
20
0
1
31
61
91
121
151
181
211
241
271
301
331
361
Day
Rainy season at Pakse, Lao PDR
CO2 Scenario
360ppm
540ppm
720ppm
On-set date
137
145
152
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
End date
267
271
277
Rainy season day
130
128
126
Annual rainfall (mm)
2213
2370
2551
111
Cantho
Rainfall (milimeter)
80
C360
60
40
20
0
1
31
61
91
121
151
181
211
241
271
301
331
361
Day
80
Cantho
C540
Rainfall (milimeter)
60
40
20
0
1
31
61
91
121
151
181
Day
211
241
271
301
80
331
361
C a n th o
C 720
Rainfall (milimeter)
60
40
20
0
1
31
61
91
121
151
181
D ay
211
241
271
301
331
361
Rainy season at Cantho, Viet Nam
CO2 Scenario
360ppm
540ppm
720ppm
On-set date
140
133
137
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
End date
336
287
312
Rainy season day
197
155
176
Annual rainfall (mm)
959
1027
1105
112
Appendix 2:
Result of Hydrological Regime Baseline Calculation and Model Calibration
Baseline hydrological regime simulation in the lower Mekong River basin and
calibration result was calculated at the various locations:
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
113
Sub-Basin:
Nam Ou - Lao PDR
Station:
Muong Ngoy
Coordinate:
N20.702 E102.335
Observed year: 1989
CCAM set:
P00
Discharge(million m3 /year)
10000
8000
6000
4000
Observed
Simulate
2000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
week
Parameter
Fraction of base flow
0.5
Fraction of Runoff
1
Diffusion
1
Velocity
RMSE
0.007
260.251
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
114
Sub-Basin:
Nam Khan - Lao PDR
Station:
Ban Mixay
Coordinate:
N19.787 E102.177
Observed year: 1989
CCAM set:
P00
Discharge (million m3/year)
1500
1000
500
Observed
Simulate
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
week
Parameter
Fraction of base flow
Fraction of Runoff
0.17
0.1
Diffusion
Velocity
RMSE
1
0.001
26.797
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
115
Sub-Basin:
Nam Ngum - Lao PDR
Station:
Ban Hin Heup
Coordinate:
N18.663 E102.355
Observed year: 1989
CCAM set:
P00
Discharge (million m3/ year)
4000
3000
2000
1000
Observed
Simulate
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
week
Parameter
Fraction of base flow
0.5
Fraction of Runoff
1
Diffusion
1
Velocity
RMSE
0.03
117.358
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
116
Sub-Basin:
Nam Ngum - Lao PDR
Station:
Ban Pak Kanhoung
Coordinate:
N18.417 E102.575
Observed year: 1989
CCAM set:
P00
Discharge (million m3/year)
16000
12000
8000
Observed
Simulate
4000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25 28
week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Parameter
Fraction of base flow
0.6
Fraction of Runoff
1
Diffusion
1
Velocity
RMSE
0.05
476.844
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
117
Sub-Basin:
Nam Nhiep - Lao PDR
Station:
Muong May
Coordinate:
N18.505 E103.662
Observed year: 1989
CCAM set:
P00
3
Discharge (million m /year)
6000
4000
2000
Observed
Simulate
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
week
Parameter
Fraction of base flow
0.5
Fraction of Runoff
1
Diffusion
20
Velocity
1
RMSE
135.736
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
118
Sub-Basin:
Nam Theun - Lao PDR
Station:
Bang Signo
Coordinate:
N17.850 E105.067
Observed year: 1989
CCAM set:
P00
Discharge (million m3/year)
8000
6000
4000
2000
Observed
Simulate
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
week
Parameter
Fraction of base flow
2.45
Fraction of Runoff
1
Diffusion
1
Velocity
RMSE
0.01
266.937
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
119
Sub-Basin:
Nam Songkhram - Thailand
Station:
Ban Tha Kok Daeng
Coordinate:
N17.867 E103.783
Observed year: 1989
CCAM set:
P00
Discharge (million m3/year)
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Observed
Simulate
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
week
Parameter
Fraction of base flow
1.6
Fraction of Runoff
Diffusion
Velocity
RMSE
1
0.5
0.003
233.616
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
120
Sub-Basin:
Se Bang Fai - Lao PDR
Station:
Se Bang Fai Bridge-13
Coordinate:
N17.072 E104.985
Observed year: 1989
CCAM set:
P00
6000
3
Discharge (million m /year)
8000
4000
2000
Observed
Simulate
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
week
Parameter
Fraction of base flow
0.73
Fraction of Runoff
Diffusion
Velocity
RMSE
1
0.5
0.005
325.353
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
121
Sub-Basin:
Se Bang Hieng - Lao PDR
Station:
Ban Keng Done
Coordinate:
N16.185 E105.815
Observed year: 1989
CCAM set:
P00
Discharge (milion m3/year)
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
Observed
Simulate
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
week
Parameter
Fraction of base flow
0.6
Fraction of Runoff
1
Diffusion
1
Velocity
RMSE
0.01
529.739
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
122
Sub-Basin:
Nam Chi - Thailand
Station:
Ban Chot
Coordinate:
Observed year: 1989
CCAM set:
P00
Discharge (million m 3/year)
6000
4000
2000
Observed
Simulate
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
week
Parameter
Fraction of base flow
0.5
Fraction of Runoff
1
Diffusion
1
Velocity
RMSE
0.015
244.755
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
123
Sub-Basin:
Nam Mun - Thailand
Station:
Kaeng Saphu Tai
Coordinate:
N15.240 E105.250
Observed year: 1989
CCAM set:
P00
Discharge (million m3/year)
20000
15000
10000
5000
Observed
Simulate
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
week
Parameter
Fraction of base flow
0.45
Fraction of Runoff
1
Diffusion
1
Velocity
RMSE
0.05
741.520
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
124
Sub-Basin:
Se Done - Lao PDR
Station:
Souvanakhili
Coordinate:
N15.383 E105.817
Observed year: 1989
CCAM set:
P00
Discharge (million m3/year)
3000
2000
1000
Observed
Simulate
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
week
Parameter
Fraction of base flow
0.14
Fraction of Runoff
1
Diffusion
20
Velocity
1
RMSE
141.828
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
125
Sub-Basin:
Se Kong - Lao PDR
Station:
Attapeu
Coordinate:
N14.800 E106.833
Observed year: 1989
CCAM set:
P00
Discharge (million m3/year)
15000
10000
5000
Observed
Simulate
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Parameter
Fraction of base flow
0.8
Fraction of Runoff
1
Diffusion
1
Velocity
RMSE
0.05
303.894
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
126
Appendix 3:
Simulation Result of Hydrological Regime of major Sub-basins of Mekong
River in Lao PDR and Thailand under Different Climate Scenarios
The discharge calculation for each individual sub-basin was simulated at the mouth of
each major tributary in Lao PDR and Thailand:
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
127
Sub-Basin:
Nam Ou - Lao PDR
Station:
Tributary mouth
Coordinate:
N20.05 E102.24
Discharge (million m3/year)
15000
Wet Year
10000
C360
C540
5000
C720
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
25
28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
49
52
Discharge Level
11,458 million cubic meters / year
+ 7.23 %
+ 16.78 %
15000
Discharge (million m3/year)
46
Dry Year
10000
5000
C360
C540
C720
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
19
22
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Discharge Level
9,035 million cubic meters / year
- 15.56 %
+ 24.38 %
128
Sub-Basin:
Nam Khan - Lao PDR
Station:
Tributary mount
Coordinate:
N19.87 E102.18
Discharge (million m3/year)
1500
Wet Year
1000
C360
C540
C720
500
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
49
52
Discharge Level
1,293 million cubic meters / year
+ 6.65 %
+ 6.93 %
1500
Discharge (million m3/year)
46
Dry Year
1000
500
C360
C540
C720
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
19
22
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Discharge Level
946 million cubic meters / year
-11.17 %
+ 44.80 %
129
Sub-Basin:
Upper Nam Ngum - Lao PDR
Station:
Before Dam Entry
Coordinate:
N18.75 E102.77
Discharge (million m3/year)
5000
Wet Year
4000
3000
C360
C540
C720
2000
1000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
19
22
25 28
Week
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Discharge Level
3,820 million cubic meters / year
+ 14.77 %
+ 8.44 %
5000
Discharge (million m3/year)
31
Dry Year
4000
3000
2000
C360
C540
C720
1000
0
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Week
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
Discharge Level
2,891 million cubic meters / year
- 12.30 %
+ 51.49 %
130
Sub-Basin:
Nam Ngum - Lao PDR
Station:
Tributary mouth
Coordinate:
N18.16 E103.07
Discharge (million m3/year)
20000
Wet Year
15000
C360
C540
C720
10000
5000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
49
52
Discharge Level
14,837 million cubic meters / year
+ 6.83 %
+ 11.79 %
20000
Discharge (million m3/year)
46
Dry Year
15000
10000
C360
C540
C720
5000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Week
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
Discharge Level
11,837 million cubic meters / year
+ 4.70 %
+ 46.63 %
131
Sub-Basin:
Nam Nhiep - Lao PDR
Station:
Tributary mouth
Coordinate:
N18.41 E103.59
Discharge (million m3/year)
6000
Wet Year
5000
4000
C360
C540
C720
3000
2000
1000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
49
52
Discharge Level
4,796 million cubic meters / year
+ 4.70 %
+ 46.63 %
6000
Discharge (million m3/year)
46
Dry Year
5000
4000
3000
C360
C540
C720
2000
1000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
19
22
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Discharge Level
3,902 million cubic meters / year
- 4.06 %
+ 33.28 %
132
Sub-Basin:
Nam Theun - Lao PDR
Station:
Tributary mouth
Coordinate:
N18.33 E104.01
Discharge (million m3/year)
50000
Wet Year
40000
30000
20000
C360
C540
C720
10000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
49
52
Discharge Level
39,427 million cubic meters / year
- 5.68 %
+ 18.75 %
50000
Discharge (million m3/year)
46
Dry Year
40000
30000
20000
C360
C540
C720
10000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
19
22
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Discharge Level
31,483 million cubic meters / year
+ 11.03 %
+ 30.47 %
133
Sub-Basin:
Se Bang Fai - Lao PDR
Station:
Tributary mouth
Coordinate:
N16.98 E104.83
10000
Discharge (million m /year)
Wet Year
3
8000
6000
C360
C540
C720
4000
2000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
49
52
Discharge Level
8,330 million cubic meters / year
- 4.54 %
+ 14.92 %
Dry Year
10000
Discharge (million m3/year)
46
8000
6000
C360
C540
C720
4000
2000
0
1
4
7
10
13
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
16
19
22
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Discharge Level
6,412 million cubic meters / year
+ 1.40 %
+ 32.69 %
134
Sub-Basin:
Se Bang Hieng - Lao PDR
Station:
Tributary mouth
Coordinate:
N16.19 E105.32
Discharge (million m3/year)
15000
Wet Year
10000
C360
C540
C720
5000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
49
52
Discharge Level
10,057 million cubic meters / year
+ 0.04 %
+ 27.95 %
15000
Discharge (million m3/year)
46
Dry Year
10000
5000
C360
C540
C720
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
19
22
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Discharge Level
6,784 million cubic meters / year
+ 10.60 %
+ 51.21 %
135
Sub-Basin:
Se Done - Lao PDR
Station:
Tributary mouth
Coordinate:
N15.26 E105.84
Discharge (million m3/year)
6000
Wet Year
5000
4000
3000
C360
C540
C720
2000
1000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25 28
Week
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
31
34
37
40
43
49
52
Discharge Level
2,574 million cubic meters / year
+ 13.30 %
+ 100.05 %
6000
Discharge (million m3/year)
46
Dry Year
5000
C360
C540
4000
C720
3000
2000
1000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
19
22
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Discharge Level
1,829 million cubic meters /
year
+ 2.91 %
+ 53.43 %
136
Sub-Basin:
Se Kong - Lao PDR
Station:
Tributary mouth
Coordinate:
N13.67 E106.13
Discharge (million m3/year)
70000
Wet Year
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
C360
C540
10000
C720
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
49
52
Discharge Level
37,506 million cubic meters / year
+ 20.20 %
+ 63.21 %
70000
Discharge (million m3/year)
46
Dry Year
C360
C540
C720
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1
4
7
10
13
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
16
19
22
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Discharge Level
35,138 million cubic meters / year
-13.64 %
+ 5.57 %
137
Sub-Basin:
Se Son - Lao PDR
Station:
Tributary mouth
Coordinate:
N13.58 E106.30
Discharge (million m3/year)
25000
Wet Year
20000
15000
10000
C360
C540
5000
C720
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Discharge Level
14,279 million cubic meters / year
+ 24.74 %
+ 51.75 %
Dry Year
Discharge (million m3/year)
25000
C360
C540
C720
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
19
22
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Discharge Level
13,303 million cubic meters / year
- 11.60 %
+ 1.84 %
138
Sub-Basin:
Se Pok - Lao PDR
Station:
Tributary mouth
Coordinate:
N13.50 E106.30
Wet Year
20000
3
Discharge (million m /year)
25000
15000
10000
C360
C540
C720
5000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
49
52
Discharge Level
13,050 million cubic meters / year
+ 22.39 %
+ 51.26 %
Dry Year
25000
Discharge (million m /year)
46
C360
C540
C720
3
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
19
22
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Discharge Level
12,382 million cubic meters / year
- 15.29 %
- 3.53 %
139
Sub-Basin:
Nam Songkhram - Thailand
Station:
Tributary mouth
Coordinate:
N17.68 E104.35
Discharge (million m3/year)
15000
Wet Year
10000
C360
C540
C720
5000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Discharge (million m3/year)
15000
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Discharge Level
12,270 million cubic meters / year
+ 6.34 %
+ 7.41 %
Dry Year
10000
C360
C540
C720
5000
0
1
4
7
10
13
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
16
19
22
25 28
Week
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Discharge Level
11,750 million cubic meters / year
+ 7.18 %
+ 24.98 %
140
Sub-Basin:
Nam Chi - Thailand
Station:
Tributary mouth
Coordinate:
N15.26 E104.66
10000
Discharge (million m /year)
Wet Year
3
8000
6000
4000
C360
C540
C720
2000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25 28
Week
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
31
34
37
40
43
49
52
Discharge Level
6,473 million cubic meters / year
+ 12.73 %
+ 21.27 %
10000
Discharge (million m3/year)
46
Dry Year
8000
6000
4000
C360
C540
C720
2000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Week
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
Discharge Level
7,788 million cubic meters / year
- 10.24 %
+ 14.43 %
141
Sub-Basin:
Nam Mun - Thailand
Station:
Tributary mouth
Coordinate:
N15.26 E105.45
Discharge (million m3/year)
25000
Wet Year
20000
15000
10000
C360
C540
C720
5000
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
Week
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Discharge (million m 3/year)
25000
Discharge Level
18,645 million cubic meters / year
+ 10.02 %
+ 34.06 %
Dry Year
20000
15000
10000
C360
5000
C540
C720
0
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Week
Period
Base line year
Compare C-360 & C-540
Compare C-360 & C-720
Final technical report – AIACC AS07
Discharge Level
21,232 million cubic meters / year
- 15.01 %
+ 15.39 %
142
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