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Table 4: Number of annual hot day at selected cities in the region under climate condition at different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration Table 5: Number of annual cool day in the selected cities in the region under climate condition at different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration Table 6: Annual precipitation in Mekong River basin in Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam – Wet year scenario Table 7: Annual precipitation in Mekong River basin in Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam – Dry year scenario Table 8: Impact of climate change on discharge of Mekong River’s tributaries in Lao PDR and Thailand Table 9: Simulated yield of rice productivity at the 3 study sites under different climate scenarios Table 10: Study site on risk and vulnerability assessment in Thailand - details background of the 5 zones of study Table 11: Indicators used for evaluating farmer’s risk to climate impact Table 12: Scenario on change in rice productivity – proxy used for evaluating farmer’s risk and vulnerability to impact of climate change Table 13: Farm Level Measures for Managing Climate Risks Table 14: Community Level Measures for Managing Climate Risks Final technical report – AIACC AS07 107 Table 15: National Level Measures for Managing Climate Risks Final technical report – AIACC AS07 108 Appendix 1: Rainy Season Pattern at Selected Cities in lower Mekong River Basin under Influence of Climate Change Final technical report – AIACC AS07 109 Vientiane Rainfall (milimeter) 80 C360 60 40 20 0 1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361 Day Vientiane Rainfall (milimeter) 80 C540 60 40 20 0 1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361 Day Vientiane Rainfall (milimeter) 80 C720 60 40 20 0 1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361 Day Rainy season at Vientiane, Lao PDR CO2 Scenario 360ppm 540ppm 720ppm On-set date 146 136 136 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 End date 275 278 267 Rainy season day 130 143 132 Annual rainfall (mm) 1229 1511 1502 110 Rainfall (milimeter) 80 Pakse C360 60 40 20 0 1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361 Day Rainfall (milimeter) 80 Pakse C540 60 40 20 0 1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361 Day Rainfall (milimeter) 80 Pakse C720 60 40 20 0 1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361 Day Rainy season at Pakse, Lao PDR CO2 Scenario 360ppm 540ppm 720ppm On-set date 137 145 152 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 End date 267 271 277 Rainy season day 130 128 126 Annual rainfall (mm) 2213 2370 2551 111 Cantho Rainfall (milimeter) 80 C360 60 40 20 0 1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361 Day 80 Cantho C540 Rainfall (milimeter) 60 40 20 0 1 31 61 91 121 151 181 Day 211 241 271 301 80 331 361 C a n th o C 720 Rainfall (milimeter) 60 40 20 0 1 31 61 91 121 151 181 D ay 211 241 271 301 331 361 Rainy season at Cantho, Viet Nam CO2 Scenario 360ppm 540ppm 720ppm On-set date 140 133 137 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 End date 336 287 312 Rainy season day 197 155 176 Annual rainfall (mm) 959 1027 1105 112 Appendix 2: Result of Hydrological Regime Baseline Calculation and Model Calibration Baseline hydrological regime simulation in the lower Mekong River basin and calibration result was calculated at the various locations: Final technical report – AIACC AS07 113 Sub-Basin: Nam Ou - Lao PDR Station: Muong Ngoy Coordinate: N20.702 E102.335 Observed year: 1989 CCAM set: P00 Discharge(million m3 /year) 10000 8000 6000 4000 Observed Simulate 2000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week Parameter Fraction of base flow 0.5 Fraction of Runoff 1 Diffusion 1 Velocity RMSE 0.007 260.251 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 114 Sub-Basin: Nam Khan - Lao PDR Station: Ban Mixay Coordinate: N19.787 E102.177 Observed year: 1989 CCAM set: P00 Discharge (million m3/year) 1500 1000 500 Observed Simulate 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week Parameter Fraction of base flow Fraction of Runoff 0.17 0.1 Diffusion Velocity RMSE 1 0.001 26.797 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 115 Sub-Basin: Nam Ngum - Lao PDR Station: Ban Hin Heup Coordinate: N18.663 E102.355 Observed year: 1989 CCAM set: P00 Discharge (million m3/ year) 4000 3000 2000 1000 Observed Simulate 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week Parameter Fraction of base flow 0.5 Fraction of Runoff 1 Diffusion 1 Velocity RMSE 0.03 117.358 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 116 Sub-Basin: Nam Ngum - Lao PDR Station: Ban Pak Kanhoung Coordinate: N18.417 E102.575 Observed year: 1989 CCAM set: P00 Discharge (million m3/year) 16000 12000 8000 Observed Simulate 4000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Parameter Fraction of base flow 0.6 Fraction of Runoff 1 Diffusion 1 Velocity RMSE 0.05 476.844 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 117 Sub-Basin: Nam Nhiep - Lao PDR Station: Muong May Coordinate: N18.505 E103.662 Observed year: 1989 CCAM set: P00 3 Discharge (million m /year) 6000 4000 2000 Observed Simulate 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week Parameter Fraction of base flow 0.5 Fraction of Runoff 1 Diffusion 20 Velocity 1 RMSE 135.736 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 118 Sub-Basin: Nam Theun - Lao PDR Station: Bang Signo Coordinate: N17.850 E105.067 Observed year: 1989 CCAM set: P00 Discharge (million m3/year) 8000 6000 4000 2000 Observed Simulate 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week Parameter Fraction of base flow 2.45 Fraction of Runoff 1 Diffusion 1 Velocity RMSE 0.01 266.937 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 119 Sub-Basin: Nam Songkhram - Thailand Station: Ban Tha Kok Daeng Coordinate: N17.867 E103.783 Observed year: 1989 CCAM set: P00 Discharge (million m3/year) 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Observed Simulate 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week Parameter Fraction of base flow 1.6 Fraction of Runoff Diffusion Velocity RMSE 1 0.5 0.003 233.616 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 120 Sub-Basin: Se Bang Fai - Lao PDR Station: Se Bang Fai Bridge-13 Coordinate: N17.072 E104.985 Observed year: 1989 CCAM set: P00 6000 3 Discharge (million m /year) 8000 4000 2000 Observed Simulate 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week Parameter Fraction of base flow 0.73 Fraction of Runoff Diffusion Velocity RMSE 1 0.5 0.005 325.353 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 121 Sub-Basin: Se Bang Hieng - Lao PDR Station: Ban Keng Done Coordinate: N16.185 E105.815 Observed year: 1989 CCAM set: P00 Discharge (milion m3/year) 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 Observed Simulate 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week Parameter Fraction of base flow 0.6 Fraction of Runoff 1 Diffusion 1 Velocity RMSE 0.01 529.739 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 122 Sub-Basin: Nam Chi - Thailand Station: Ban Chot Coordinate: Observed year: 1989 CCAM set: P00 Discharge (million m 3/year) 6000 4000 2000 Observed Simulate 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week Parameter Fraction of base flow 0.5 Fraction of Runoff 1 Diffusion 1 Velocity RMSE 0.015 244.755 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 123 Sub-Basin: Nam Mun - Thailand Station: Kaeng Saphu Tai Coordinate: N15.240 E105.250 Observed year: 1989 CCAM set: P00 Discharge (million m3/year) 20000 15000 10000 5000 Observed Simulate 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week Parameter Fraction of base flow 0.45 Fraction of Runoff 1 Diffusion 1 Velocity RMSE 0.05 741.520 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 124 Sub-Basin: Se Done - Lao PDR Station: Souvanakhili Coordinate: N15.383 E105.817 Observed year: 1989 CCAM set: P00 Discharge (million m3/year) 3000 2000 1000 Observed Simulate 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week Parameter Fraction of base flow 0.14 Fraction of Runoff 1 Diffusion 20 Velocity 1 RMSE 141.828 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 125 Sub-Basin: Se Kong - Lao PDR Station: Attapeu Coordinate: N14.800 E106.833 Observed year: 1989 CCAM set: P00 Discharge (million m3/year) 15000 10000 5000 Observed Simulate 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Parameter Fraction of base flow 0.8 Fraction of Runoff 1 Diffusion 1 Velocity RMSE 0.05 303.894 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 126 Appendix 3: Simulation Result of Hydrological Regime of major Sub-basins of Mekong River in Lao PDR and Thailand under Different Climate Scenarios The discharge calculation for each individual sub-basin was simulated at the mouth of each major tributary in Lao PDR and Thailand: Final technical report – AIACC AS07 127 Sub-Basin: Nam Ou - Lao PDR Station: Tributary mouth Coordinate: N20.05 E102.24 Discharge (million m3/year) 15000 Wet Year 10000 C360 C540 5000 C720 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 49 52 Discharge Level 11,458 million cubic meters / year + 7.23 % + 16.78 % 15000 Discharge (million m3/year) 46 Dry Year 10000 5000 C360 C540 C720 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 19 22 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Discharge Level 9,035 million cubic meters / year - 15.56 % + 24.38 % 128 Sub-Basin: Nam Khan - Lao PDR Station: Tributary mount Coordinate: N19.87 E102.18 Discharge (million m3/year) 1500 Wet Year 1000 C360 C540 C720 500 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 49 52 Discharge Level 1,293 million cubic meters / year + 6.65 % + 6.93 % 1500 Discharge (million m3/year) 46 Dry Year 1000 500 C360 C540 C720 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 19 22 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Discharge Level 946 million cubic meters / year -11.17 % + 44.80 % 129 Sub-Basin: Upper Nam Ngum - Lao PDR Station: Before Dam Entry Coordinate: N18.75 E102.77 Discharge (million m3/year) 5000 Wet Year 4000 3000 C360 C540 C720 2000 1000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 19 22 25 28 Week 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Discharge Level 3,820 million cubic meters / year + 14.77 % + 8.44 % 5000 Discharge (million m3/year) 31 Dry Year 4000 3000 2000 C360 C540 C720 1000 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 Week Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 Discharge Level 2,891 million cubic meters / year - 12.30 % + 51.49 % 130 Sub-Basin: Nam Ngum - Lao PDR Station: Tributary mouth Coordinate: N18.16 E103.07 Discharge (million m3/year) 20000 Wet Year 15000 C360 C540 C720 10000 5000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 49 52 Discharge Level 14,837 million cubic meters / year + 6.83 % + 11.79 % 20000 Discharge (million m3/year) 46 Dry Year 15000 10000 C360 C540 C720 5000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Week Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 Discharge Level 11,837 million cubic meters / year + 4.70 % + 46.63 % 131 Sub-Basin: Nam Nhiep - Lao PDR Station: Tributary mouth Coordinate: N18.41 E103.59 Discharge (million m3/year) 6000 Wet Year 5000 4000 C360 C540 C720 3000 2000 1000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 49 52 Discharge Level 4,796 million cubic meters / year + 4.70 % + 46.63 % 6000 Discharge (million m3/year) 46 Dry Year 5000 4000 3000 C360 C540 C720 2000 1000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 19 22 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Discharge Level 3,902 million cubic meters / year - 4.06 % + 33.28 % 132 Sub-Basin: Nam Theun - Lao PDR Station: Tributary mouth Coordinate: N18.33 E104.01 Discharge (million m3/year) 50000 Wet Year 40000 30000 20000 C360 C540 C720 10000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 49 52 Discharge Level 39,427 million cubic meters / year - 5.68 % + 18.75 % 50000 Discharge (million m3/year) 46 Dry Year 40000 30000 20000 C360 C540 C720 10000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 19 22 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Discharge Level 31,483 million cubic meters / year + 11.03 % + 30.47 % 133 Sub-Basin: Se Bang Fai - Lao PDR Station: Tributary mouth Coordinate: N16.98 E104.83 10000 Discharge (million m /year) Wet Year 3 8000 6000 C360 C540 C720 4000 2000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 49 52 Discharge Level 8,330 million cubic meters / year - 4.54 % + 14.92 % Dry Year 10000 Discharge (million m3/year) 46 8000 6000 C360 C540 C720 4000 2000 0 1 4 7 10 13 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 16 19 22 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Discharge Level 6,412 million cubic meters / year + 1.40 % + 32.69 % 134 Sub-Basin: Se Bang Hieng - Lao PDR Station: Tributary mouth Coordinate: N16.19 E105.32 Discharge (million m3/year) 15000 Wet Year 10000 C360 C540 C720 5000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 49 52 Discharge Level 10,057 million cubic meters / year + 0.04 % + 27.95 % 15000 Discharge (million m3/year) 46 Dry Year 10000 5000 C360 C540 C720 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 19 22 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Discharge Level 6,784 million cubic meters / year + 10.60 % + 51.21 % 135 Sub-Basin: Se Done - Lao PDR Station: Tributary mouth Coordinate: N15.26 E105.84 Discharge (million m3/year) 6000 Wet Year 5000 4000 3000 C360 C540 C720 2000 1000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 Week Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 31 34 37 40 43 49 52 Discharge Level 2,574 million cubic meters / year + 13.30 % + 100.05 % 6000 Discharge (million m3/year) 46 Dry Year 5000 C360 C540 4000 C720 3000 2000 1000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 19 22 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Discharge Level 1,829 million cubic meters / year + 2.91 % + 53.43 % 136 Sub-Basin: Se Kong - Lao PDR Station: Tributary mouth Coordinate: N13.67 E106.13 Discharge (million m3/year) 70000 Wet Year 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 C360 C540 10000 C720 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 49 52 Discharge Level 37,506 million cubic meters / year + 20.20 % + 63.21 % 70000 Discharge (million m3/year) 46 Dry Year C360 C540 C720 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1 4 7 10 13 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 16 19 22 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Discharge Level 35,138 million cubic meters / year -13.64 % + 5.57 % 137 Sub-Basin: Se Son - Lao PDR Station: Tributary mouth Coordinate: N13.58 E106.30 Discharge (million m3/year) 25000 Wet Year 20000 15000 10000 C360 C540 5000 C720 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Discharge Level 14,279 million cubic meters / year + 24.74 % + 51.75 % Dry Year Discharge (million m3/year) 25000 C360 C540 C720 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 19 22 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Discharge Level 13,303 million cubic meters / year - 11.60 % + 1.84 % 138 Sub-Basin: Se Pok - Lao PDR Station: Tributary mouth Coordinate: N13.50 E106.30 Wet Year 20000 3 Discharge (million m /year) 25000 15000 10000 C360 C540 C720 5000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 49 52 Discharge Level 13,050 million cubic meters / year + 22.39 % + 51.26 % Dry Year 25000 Discharge (million m /year) 46 C360 C540 C720 3 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 19 22 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Discharge Level 12,382 million cubic meters / year - 15.29 % - 3.53 % 139 Sub-Basin: Nam Songkhram - Thailand Station: Tributary mouth Coordinate: N17.68 E104.35 Discharge (million m3/year) 15000 Wet Year 10000 C360 C540 C720 5000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Discharge (million m3/year) 15000 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Discharge Level 12,270 million cubic meters / year + 6.34 % + 7.41 % Dry Year 10000 C360 C540 C720 5000 0 1 4 7 10 13 Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 16 19 22 25 28 Week 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Discharge Level 11,750 million cubic meters / year + 7.18 % + 24.98 % 140 Sub-Basin: Nam Chi - Thailand Station: Tributary mouth Coordinate: N15.26 E104.66 10000 Discharge (million m /year) Wet Year 3 8000 6000 4000 C360 C540 C720 2000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 Week Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 31 34 37 40 43 49 52 Discharge Level 6,473 million cubic meters / year + 12.73 % + 21.27 % 10000 Discharge (million m3/year) 46 Dry Year 8000 6000 4000 C360 C540 C720 2000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Week Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 Discharge Level 7,788 million cubic meters / year - 10.24 % + 14.43 % 141 Sub-Basin: Nam Mun - Thailand Station: Tributary mouth Coordinate: N15.26 E105.45 Discharge (million m3/year) 25000 Wet Year 20000 15000 10000 C360 C540 C720 5000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Week Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Discharge (million m 3/year) 25000 Discharge Level 18,645 million cubic meters / year + 10.02 % + 34.06 % Dry Year 20000 15000 10000 C360 5000 C540 C720 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 Week Period Base line year Compare C-360 & C-540 Compare C-360 & C-720 Final technical report – AIACC AS07 Discharge Level 21,232 million cubic meters / year - 15.01 % + 15.39 % 142

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