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Framework

 

1. Synthesize climate change trends in Thailand from available climate scenarios.
2. Review existing state of knowledge on climate change impacts and risks in Thailand.
3. Summarize climate scenario data in an easy-to-use format which was made available for further studies on climate change impacts.
4. Establish a mechanism to disseminate data and information to support climate change studies and assessments on the impact of climate change in Thailand.

The high resolution climate scenario reviewed and the Thailand climate change trend data presented in the study are based on both statistical and dynamic downscaling techniques under different IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios. The summary also provides a snapshot situation of future climate conditions in Thailand as predicted by a variety of GCMs. By having multiple GCMs we ensure to capture the uncertainty of the climate models.
The results of these analyses suggest that the future climate in Thailand and surrounding countries will get warmer, have a longer summertime, a shorter and warmer wintertime and a rainy season with higher intensity of rainfall resulting in higher annual total precipitation. These changes are unlikely to be irreversible and would have impact on various systems and sectors.

High resolution climate scenarios from long-term climate projections can be used to assess impact of climate change in various sectors as well as to support long term planning. However, a climate scenario is only a plausible future and cannot be taken as long-term forecast. There is certain degree of uncertainty in this method. One way to cope with the uncertainty of long-term climate projections is the use of multiple scenarios, which are developed using various climate models and/or under different conditions.

Climate Change Data Distribution System has been developed and opens for technical users, who need future climate data for their research purposes, to extract data and download via the internet. The system can be accessed at the following URL: http:cc.start.or.th

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Geographic zones used in summarizing trend of climate change in Thailand

Sea level change

Change in cassava productivity under different climate conditions in the future (Pannangpetch, et al., 2009)

On-line distribution system of climate scenario data for climate change impact study

1. Helping develop capacity on the part of urban planners ,managers ,and researchers in climate change vulnerability assessment and application to urban development planning and governance;
2. Promoting locally-led vulnerability research in Asian coastal cities linked to user needs ;
3. Helping develop partnerships between researchers, planners and policy makers,and to develop “communities of knowledge” for vulnerability assessment in each participating city

Activities included a two week workshop, building on the “Cities at Risk” workshop and recent studies of Asian cities sponsored by ADB, World Bank, and JICA. Participants consisted of teams drawn from potential target cities, including but not restricted to: Bangkok (Thailand), Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam), Jakarta (Indonesia), Karachi ( Pakistan), Manila (Phillipines), Mumbai (India), Shanghai and Hong Kong in China’s Pearl River Delta Region.

Output
1) Workshop proceeding, including individual city reports
2) An increase in capacity, on the part of Asian Coastal cities represented in the workshop, to deal with climate impact, risk and vulnerability assessment
3) A subsequent increase in locally-led policy-relevant research on vulnerability of Asian coastal cities
4) )Development of partnerships between university and governmental agencies in each urban area
5) Initial development of regional networks of researchers, with international partners, to share findings, experiences, and practices

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Cities at Risk Workshop, Nakhon Pathom, 22-28 August 2010

Dr. Anond Snidvongs and Mr. Vorapol Doundlomchan from the Khok-kham community

Local community area regularly impacted by flooding (Samut Sakhon)

Marine and coastal resources research center (Samut sakhon)

Mr. Vorapol Doundlomchan talking to the workshop participants

1. Climate change scenarios: The result from climate change scenarios indicate that the Mekong Region will be warmer and wetter
2. Hydrological Impacts: The future flood pulse in the Tonle Sap and the Cambodian floodplains is likely to be wetter with higher levels and more extensive flooded area as well as longer flood duration.
3. Livelihoods and Local Adaptation strategies: This component looked at the livelihoods and their resilience as well as local adaptation capacity to environmental and water related changes. The findings from the field research in the Tonle Sap as well as from the stakeholder consultation in the Mekong Delta indicated that any efforts to enhance local adaptation capacity should build on existing livelihoods and strengths at the local level as well as lessons learnt from the unexceptional events of the past.
4. Adaptation Policies: The analysis of climate change adaptation policies show that both Cambodia and Vietnam are actively engaged in developing their strategies and policies to respond to climate change impacts.

The analysis of the hydrological impacts of climate change indicated that both of our study areas, the Tonle Sap and the Mekong Delta, are particularly vulnerable. It is important to note that when discussing climate change, the focus should not be on climate change alone, but it must include adaptation to overall environmental changes due to different ‘change factors’ as climate change does not occur in isolation.

See also : Water and development research group

 

Estimated change in the flooded duration in the Mekong Delta in the future ,compared to the present day

Estimated on extended future flood areas, potentially affecting the shrimp ponds located in the coastal areas of the delta.

Estimated future occurrence of serious flood (>50 cm) that starts before end of August i.e. before the harvest of summer-autumn rice crop.

Workshop on rapid assessment of impact, vulnerability and adaptation to changing climate and flood regimes in the Mekong river delta -3-4 March, 2009- Dragon institute - Mekong - Cantho university .

• Develop scenarios that identify likely impacts of climate change on key economic sectors in Krabi in 10 and 25 years time;
• Suggest specific recommendations for both policy and institutional change (economic and environmental); and
• Engage local stakeholders in the assessment process.

The study team assembled data from a number of government sources and mapped it using GIS for the province’s upland, coastal and urban areas. Climate scenarios for next 10 and 25 years in the future were simulated with the Max Planck Institute’s ECHAM global circulation model (GCM). The scenarios were based on IPCC projections (A2 scenario) of greenhouse gas emissions (and other global change drivers). The Hadley Centre’s PRECIS model was used to increase the resolution of the GCM’s output to 25*25 km² so that results would be meaningful for Krabi province. The mean and variability of monsoon, temperature, precipitation, and prevailing winds were analyzed for the present and two future periods. Estimates of mean sea level and tropical storms were incorporated from the model outputs and from extrapolation of trends. The study team also reviewed provincial planning documents and interviewed a cross-section of stakeholders in Krabi’s upland, coastal and urban zones to gauge their awareness of climate changes and their vulnerability. In addition, 130 local, regional and national officials, business and NGO leaders, scientists and local people participated in a workshop, which was broadcast nationally on Thai public TV. Participants discussed the report’s findings and their implications for the Province’s development path.

The study found that:

1. Coastal communities are especially vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their proximity to the sea, their fisheries-dependent livelihoods and limited agricultural land. They are of significant social and cultural value as they are among the last communities in Krabi characterized by a traditional lifestyle. At the stakeholder workshop, several villagers noted that they’d already lost land and asked for assistance in dealing with coastal erosion.
2. Upland Area,In contrast to the coastal communities, the study’s results suggest that upland communities will be less vulnerable to climate change. Although rainfall will decrease during this period, it will remain sufficient to meet the needs of rubber cultivation, and the shorter monsoon season will permit additional days of tapping. Reduced rainfall, on the other hand, may reduce the productivity of oil palms. This provides another incentive to Krabi smallholders, already vulnerable to abrupt income swings traceable to market conditions, to diversify their crop base so as to increase resilience to economic and climate changes.
3. Urban Area,A lengthening dry season will increase the demand for tourism services, and hence place additional burdens on coastal resources and key ecosystems. Urban zones are likely to face water scarcity during the dry season, in response to which basin-wide water management systems will be essential. Provincial planners should engage stakeholders in a discussion of the province’s capacity for tourism growth that takes into account near and long-term climate change impacts; the best strategy may be to cap or slow growth in visitor volume while emphasizing migration to higher value and ‘greener’ services for tourists.

In addition, the study gave the holistic view on climate change impact, risk for policy maker which each sectors have to response to difference impacts.

Activities: “Impact of future climate change on resources , economics sectors and coastal community in Krabi province”. A workshop was conducted at the Pakasai Provincial Conference Hall in Krabi on 9th June 2008.

Areas with high risks for coastal instability due to sea level rise

Potential impact of sea level change and coastline destabilizing in Krabi province

Potential impact of sea level change and shallow aquifer wells salinity contamination in Krabi province

Field Trip to study areas

Area with coastal erosion problem

The stakeholder consultation workshop was conducted at the provincial conference hall on 9th June 2008

1. Studying climate change trends in Thailand and surrounding countries using high resolution climate data model.
2. Studying software accuracy for simulation of future climate by comparinge observed data with model result in baseline period. To create guideline to adjust statistical rescale and conditions to calculate for future software.

The future climate projection is the simulation of future possible climate scenarios in Thailand and surrounding countries at high resolution of grid size 20x20 km. and covers a baseline period from the year 1960 – 1999, which can be used for comparison, and the future period covers the from year 2010 – 2099. The simulation of this climate scenario is based simulation by PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) regional climate model and used Global Circulation Model (GCM) ECHAM4 dataset as initial data for calculation. The simulation covers the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios A2 and B2. Results from the simulation operation provide high resolution future climate projection for Thailand and surrounding countries up to the end of the century.

The results from PRECIS model were post-processed using a rescaling technique to derive results that are more in-line with the observed weather data. The final results of future climate projection shows trend of increasing temperature throughout Thailand, especially in the central plain of Chao Phraya river basin and lower part of north-eastern region. Hot period over the year will also be longer in the future. Total annual precipitation may fluctuate in the early part of the century but the projection shows clear trend of increasing precipitation from middle of the century onward, especially in the area near Mekong River as well as the southern region, except the western border, where future precipitation may remain almost unchanged. Change in wind speed and wind direction can be detected in the coastal zone, where south-west wind speed may increase by 3-5% in the future.

Average annual hot days (= >35ºC)

Average annual minimum temperature (ºC)

Average annual cool days (= < 16ºC)

Change in precipitation (%)compare to the baseline period of 1980s

Funding source: United nations institute for training and research (UNITAR)
Principal investigator: Assistant Professor Dr.Anond Snidwongs
Partners: European Commission (EC) ant the UK Department of Environment ,Food and Rural Affairs(DEFRA)
Researchers: Suppakorn Chinvanno
Timeframe: November 2006 - July 2008
Period: 20 months
Status: Completed
See also: http://www.acccaproject.org

The ACCCA project was jointly implemented by UNITAR, the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), the international START Secretariat, and other institutions in Africa and Asia. Monitoring teams jointly provided implementation assistance to every pilot action.The ACCCA project draws on lessons learned about communicating climate risk information in clear terms that are relevant to decision-makers; addressing climate risks and adaptation in an integrated, multidisciplinary way; the importance of engaging stakeholders substantively; and the long-term benefits of partnering institutions from scientific and policy communities for understanding and managing climate change risks.

The project's objectives, methods and activities have been developed through dialogues among the EC, the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), and the partner organizations involved in the project. These dialogues have helped focus project activities specifically upon building capacity, engaging civil society, and implementing pilot actions related to the UNFCCC and other multilateral environmental agreements. SEA START RC coordinated the pilot projects in Asia namely:

1. NEPAL - Application of Community Based Adaptation Measures to Weather Related Disasters (WRDs) in Nepal
2. INDIA - Promoting Integration of Adaptation Strategies into Developmental Policies by Effectively Communicating Climate Risks and Adaptation Measures in India (Bundelkhand region)
3. PHILIPINES - Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Watershed Management and Upland Farming in the Philippines
4. MONGOLIA - Policy Framework for Adaptation Strategies for the Mongolian Rangelands to Climate Change at Multiple Scales
5. BANGLADESH - Participatory Climate Risk Assessment and Development of Local Adaptation Action Plans in Bangladesh