A7_S9.pdf

A7_S9.pdf A7_S9.pdf Rapid Assessment on Climate Change Risk CCAI pilot site: Champhone, Savannakhet, Lao PDR Session 9: Climate change and impact on hydrological regime Southeast Asia START Regional Center SEA START RC copyright 2010 Climate change and impact on hydrological regime Using long term climate projection data in climate change impact assessment: Case studies on hydrological analysis Climate scenarios Precipitation/ Tmax/ Tmin/ windspeed Runoff profiles SEA START RC copyright 2010 Land use/cover scenarios Hydrological Model Flood profiles Other hydrological regime Templates River Network Soil property Land cover Elevation Climate change and impact on hydrological regime Routing Model Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) SEA START RC copyright 2010 Discharge (mm3/s) Climate change and impact on hydrological regime Daily Discharge SEA START RC copyright 2010 Climate change and impact on hydrological regime Change in annual discharge – Se Bang Hieng Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Million cubic meter 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Base line 2010s 2020s Decade SEA START RC copyright 2010 2030s 2040s Climate change and impact on hydrological regime Change in weekly discharge – Se Bang Hieng Scenario A2 45000 40000 35000 cu.m/s 30000 25000 BL 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 week SEA START RC copyright 2010 Climate change and impact on hydrological regime Change in weekly discharge – Se Bang Hieng Scenario B2 40000 35000 30000 cu.m/s 25000 BL 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 week SEA START RC copyright 2010 Climate change and impact on hydrological regime Critical flow – flood risk (based on historical data) SEA START RC copyright 2010 Climate change and impact on hydrological regime Other examples SEA START RC copyright 2010 Climate change and impact on hydrological regime Case study in Lower Songkram River basin - Thailand Study area SEA START RC copyright 2010 Climate change and impact on hydrological regime Change in flood boundary in lower Songkram River basin Now Source: WUP-Fin Group, MRCS SEA START RC copyright 2010 Future Climate change and impact on hydrological regime Change in future flood risk in Mekong River delta Flood boundary may expand in the future.