A7_S7.pdf
90ºE - 112ºE
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Extracting climate change data for further analysis
• CC Distribution http://cc.start.or.th/
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Extracting climate change data for further analysis
• CC Distribution http://cc.start.or.th/
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Extracting climate change data for further analysis
• CC Distribution http://cc.start.or.th/
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Extracting climate change data for further analysis
• CC Distribution http://cc.start.or.th/
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Using climate change data to analyze change in
future trend
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Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
CHANGE IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION
Annual precipitation : comparison ECHAM 4 A2 vs B2
Udonthani-Thailand
2500
2000
mm
1500
A2
1000
500
0
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B2
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
CHANGE IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION – EXTREME YEAR VS MEDIAN YEAR
Wettest Year
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Median year
3,726
2,934
3,093
2,956
2,685
2700
2,655
2650
Precipitation In2,Svannakhet
2600
562
4000
2550
2,512
2500
2450
3500
BASELINE
2020s
3000
2400
2030s
2040s
BASELINE
2020s
2030s
Driest year
2500
3000
2,407
2500
2000
1,925
2,373
2000
2,282
1500
1500
1000
500
1000
0
BASELINE
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2020s
BASELINE
2040s
2030s
2020s
2030s
2040s
2040s
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF HEAVY RAINFALL YEAR OVER THE DECADE
6
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8
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF HEAVY RAINFALL YEAR OVER THE DECADE
Time
Number of years which
annual rainfall higher than
average annual rainfall in
Baseline period
Baseline
6
8
6
8
2020s
2030s
2040s
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Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
SHIFT AND CHANGE IN RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION PATTERN/RAINY SEASON
200
180
160
Baseline
Median
140
120
100
Baseline
80
Future
60
Precipitation
40
20
0
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Shift of rainy season
9
10 11 12
mm
1
500
400
300
200
100
0
1
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3
5
7
9
11
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
CHANGE IN TREND OF TEMPERATURE:
3-MONTH AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
D egree Celcius
Maximum temperature (3 months average) : comparison ECHAM4 A 2 vs B2
U donthani-Thailand
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
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D egree Celcius
Minimum temperature (3 months average) : comparison ECHAM4 A2 vs B2
U donthani-Thailand
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
A2
B2
A2
B2
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE – NIGHT-TIME & DAYTIME
Maximum Temperature
39
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
38
Degree Celcius
Degree Celcius
Minimum Temperature
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
1
2
3
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4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
CHANGE IN LENGTH OF SUMMER /WINTER - SAVANNAKHET
Number of hot day (>35°C)
120
112
108
100
91
94
80
60
40
Number of cool day (<16 °C)
20
25
0
Baseline
2020 s
2030 s
20
22
2040s
15
15
15
2020s
2030s
13
10
5
0
Baseline
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2040s
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
PRECIS ECHAM 4
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
1961-2000
PRECIS ECHAM 4
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
2045-2064
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Climate change risk map from previous case study
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Examples from previous case studies: Climate change risk
assessment – Numerical analysis vs Spatial analysis
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Examples from previous case studies: Climate change risk
assessment – Numerical analysis vs Spatial analysis
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Examples from previous case studies: Climate change risk
assessment – Numerical analysis vs Spatial analysis
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Examples from previous case studies: Climate change risk
assessment – Numerical analysis vs Spatial analysis
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Examples from previous case studies: Climate change risk
assessment – Numerical analysis vs Spatial analysis
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Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Spatial Analysis
Annual
Precipitation
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Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Spatial Analysis
Annual
Precipitation
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Spatial Analysis
Annual
Precipitation
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Spatial Analysis
Annual
Precipitation
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Spatial Analysis
Annual
Precipitation
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Spatial Analysis
Annual
Precipitation
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Spatial Analysis
Change in Average
Annual
Precipitation
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Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Spatial Analysis
Change in Average
Annual
Precipitation
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Spatial Analysis
Change in Average
Annual
Precipitation
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Spatial Analysis
Change in Average
Annual
Precipitation
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Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Climate Change in Chi-Mun
Maximum temperature
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Climate Change in Chi-Mun
Minimum temperature
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Climate Change in Chi-Mun
Change in number of hot days
Examples from previous case studies: Climate change risk assessment –
Numerical analysis vs Spatial analysis
Climate Change in Chi-Mun
Change in number of cool days
Analysis of climate change for risk assessment
Climate Change in Chi-Mun
Change in annual rainfall
Thank you
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