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90ºE - 112ºE SEA START RC copyright 2010 Extracting climate change data for further analysis • CC Distribution http://cc.start.or.th/ SEA START RC copyright 2010 Extracting climate change data for further analysis • CC Distribution http://cc.start.or.th/ SEA START RC copyright 2010 Extracting climate change data for further analysis • CC Distribution http://cc.start.or.th/ SEA START RC copyright 2010 Extracting climate change data for further analysis • CC Distribution http://cc.start.or.th/ SEA START RC copyright 2010 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Using climate change data to analyze change in future trend SEA START RC copyright 2010 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment CHANGE IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION Annual precipitation : comparison ECHAM 4 A2 vs B2 Udonthani-Thailand 2500 2000 mm 1500 A2 1000 500 0 SEA START RC copyright 2010 B2 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment CHANGE IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION – EXTREME YEAR VS MEDIAN YEAR Wettest Year 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Median year 3,726 2,934 3,093 2,956 2,685 2700 2,655 2650 Precipitation In2,Svannakhet 2600 562 4000 2550 2,512 2500 2450 3500 BASELINE 2020s 3000 2400 2030s 2040s BASELINE 2020s 2030s Driest year 2500 3000 2,407 2500 2000 1,925 2,373 2000 2,282 1500 1500 1000 500 1000 0 BASELINE SEA START RC copyright 2010 2020s BASELINE 2040s 2030s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2040s Analysis of climate change for risk assessment CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF HEAVY RAINFALL YEAR OVER THE DECADE 6 SEA START RC copyright 2010 8 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF HEAVY RAINFALL YEAR OVER THE DECADE Time Number of years which annual rainfall higher than average annual rainfall in Baseline period Baseline 6 8 6 8 2020s 2030s 2040s SEA START RC copyright 2010 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment SHIFT AND CHANGE IN RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION PATTERN/RAINY SEASON 200 180 160 Baseline Median 140 120 100 Baseline 80 Future 60 Precipitation 40 20 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Shift of rainy season 9 10 11 12 mm 1 500 400 300 200 100 0 1 SEA START RC copyright 2010 3 5 7 9 11 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment CHANGE IN TREND OF TEMPERATURE: 3-MONTH AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE D egree Celcius Maximum temperature (3 months average) : comparison ECHAM4 A 2 vs B2 U donthani-Thailand 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 SEA START RC copyright 2010 D egree Celcius Minimum temperature (3 months average) : comparison ECHAM4 A2 vs B2 U donthani-Thailand 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 A2 B2 A2 B2 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE – NIGHT-TIME & DAYTIME Maximum Temperature 39 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 38 Degree Celcius Degree Celcius Minimum Temperature 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 1 2 3 SEA START RC copyright 2010 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment CHANGE IN LENGTH OF SUMMER /WINTER - SAVANNAKHET Number of hot day (>35°C) 120 112 108 100 91 94 80 60 40 Number of cool day (<16 °C) 20 25 0 Baseline 2020 s 2030 s 20 22 2040s 15 15 15 2020s 2030s 13 10 5 0 Baseline SEA START RC copyright 2010 2040s Analysis of climate change for risk assessment PRECIS ECHAM 4 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 1961-2000 PRECIS ECHAM 4 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 2045-2064 SEA START RC copyright 2010 Climate change risk map from previous case study SEA START RC copyright 2010 Examples from previous case studies: Climate change risk assessment – Numerical analysis vs Spatial analysis SEA START RC copyright 2010 Examples from previous case studies: Climate change risk assessment – Numerical analysis vs Spatial analysis SEA START RC copyright 2010 Examples from previous case studies: Climate change risk assessment – Numerical analysis vs Spatial analysis SEA START RC copyright 2010 Examples from previous case studies: Climate change risk assessment – Numerical analysis vs Spatial analysis SEA START RC copyright 2010 Examples from previous case studies: Climate change risk assessment – Numerical analysis vs Spatial analysis SEA START RC copyright 2010 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Spatial Analysis Annual Precipitation SEA START RC copyright 2010 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Spatial Analysis Annual Precipitation SEA START RC copyright 2010 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Spatial Analysis Annual Precipitation SEA START RC copyright 2010 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Spatial Analysis Annual Precipitation SEA START RC copyright 2010 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Spatial Analysis Annual Precipitation SEA START RC copyright 2010 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Spatial Analysis Annual Precipitation SEA START RC copyright 2010 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Spatial Analysis Change in Average Annual Precipitation SEA START RC copyright 2010 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Spatial Analysis Change in Average Annual Precipitation SEA START RC copyright 2010 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Spatial Analysis Change in Average Annual Precipitation SEA START RC copyright 2010 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Spatial Analysis Change in Average Annual Precipitation SEA START RC copyright 2010 Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Climate Change in Chi-Mun Maximum temperature Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Climate Change in Chi-Mun Minimum temperature Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Climate Change in Chi-Mun Change in number of hot days Examples from previous case studies: Climate change risk assessment – Numerical analysis vs Spatial analysis Climate Change in Chi-Mun Change in number of cool days Analysis of climate change for risk assessment Climate Change in Chi-Mun Change in annual rainfall Thank you SEA START RC copyright 2010

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